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                                                                                                                                                                          www.xpj66266.com点击进入官方直营网站!:瑞达期货:玉米期价震荡运行,淀粉期价偏弱震荡

                                                                                                                                                                          2019年01月18日 17:50 来源:率沐人新闻门户

                                                                                                                                                                          (原标题:瑞达期货:玉米期价震荡运行,淀粉期价偏弱震荡)

                                                                                                                                                                          盘面情况:C1905日内增仓上涨,最高报1827,最低报1817,收盘1824,较上一交易日+0.27%;成交量2909万,-3.49万;持仓1277842,+4984,基差44,-9;C5-9月价差-30,+0。CS1905日内增仓上涨,最高报2274,最低报2263,收盘2268,较上一交易日+0.09%;成交量9.87万,-1.85万;持仓258944,+482,基差182,-2;CS5-9月价差-33,-2。

                                                                                                                                                                          消息:1、截至1月17日,北方四港玉米总库存在345.6万吨,较去年同期的416.7万吨减少71.1万吨,降幅为17.06%,较五年的平均值337.24万吨增加8.36万吨,增幅为2.48%。南方港口玉米内贸玉米总库存在61.1万吨,较上周的83.9万吨降22.8万吨,降幅为27.18%,较4年的平均值54.77万吨增加6.33万吨,增幅为11.56%。

                                                                                                                                                                          现货市场:玉米锦州港报价1868,-5。淀粉河北报价2460,+0;吉林报价2450,+0;山东报价2550,+0。(单位:元/吨)

                                                                                                                                                                          仓单库存:玉米仓单40498吨,+0,位于历史较高水平。淀粉仓单3071吨,+0,位于历史平均水平。

                                                                                                                                                                          主力持仓:C1905合约前20名多头持仓492235,+9663,前20名空头持仓415966,-2160,前20名净持仓76269,+8671;CS1905合约前20名多头持仓107886,-355,前20名空头持仓86263,+1983,前20名净持仓21623,-2388。(单位:手)

                                                                                                                                                                          总结:供应方面,临近年关,粮农有节前变现需求,售粮积极性较高,预计玉米供应趋松。需求方面,临近春节,淀粉深加工消费仍有增长空间,但非洲猪瘟持续发酵,饲料需求疲软,整体上需求承压。不过考虑到玉米种植成本、东北轮储收购,玉米底部仍存支撑。技术上,18日C1905合约收于阳线,主要关注5日均线的支撑。整体而言,预计玉米期价后期走势由偏空转为震荡运行。操作上,C1905合约压力位1850元/吨,支撑位1800元/吨,建议在1835元/吨卖出,止损1850元/吨,目标1805元/吨。淀粉方面,主要受原料玉米的影响比较大,随原料玉米波动。此外,淀粉的终端企业备货基本完成,淀粉走势略弱于玉米,预计淀粉后期偏弱震荡走势为主。CS1905的压力位2300元/吨,支撑位2240元/吨,建议在2280元/吨卖出,目标2255元/吨,止损2292元/吨。

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